Test a HYPE position.

When you provide two tokens to a pool, you're essentially making a market. As price moves, arbitrage traders buy the token going up (from you) and sell you the one going down. You end up holding more of the losing token and less of the winning one. If you had just held both tokens in your wallet, you'd have been better off. That gap is impermanent loss. It's “impermanent” because it only becomes real when you withdraw — if price returns to where you started, the gap closes.

The benchmark is holding the same tokens you started with, in the same amounts, with no range mechanics. For Nest In, that's 100% USDC (you start in stables waiting to buy). For Nest Out, that's 100% HYPE (you start in HYPE waiting to sell). For Earn, it's the in-range mix at entry. Positive means your LP's emissions outpaced impermanent loss and you beat just holding. Negative means you'd have made more from just holding.

A concentrated LP only earns while price is inside your chosen range. If price leaves, the position sits idle in one token. Higher is better — it means the range captured most of the action. Narrower ranges earn more per hour when in-range but spend more time out.

The start/end prices are where HYPE was actually trading at the first and last day of the backtest window — the market, which you don't control. The range is what you pick: where your capital sits. If the market was outside your range during the window, your position sat idle until price entered.

A path is one randomly-generated future trajectory for HYPE's price, following your volatility and price-trend inputs. We generate 1,000 of them and walk your position through each. Every path is different — some lucky, some unlucky — which is exactly the point.

Typical (median) is the middle outcome: 500 of the 1,000 paths did better, 500 did worse. Average (mean) is the arithmetic average — pulled by outliers. Bad case (5%) is the line below which only the worst 50 paths ended up. Good case (95%) is the line above which only the best 50 ended up. Together they show the shape of the risk.

The Monte Carlo draws each step from a random distribution with your volatility setting. Most steps are small; rarely, a chain of big-down steps compounds. That path likely had: a steep price drop (HYPE down 30-40%), most of the time spent outside your range (no emissions), and a concentrated position that amplified IL. It's the equivalent of rolling five 1's in a row in Risk — rare, but possible. If you see a single path at −35% out of 1,000, that's a ~0.1% probability tail outcome. If you see 50 there, it's 5% — the "bad case" line.

Volatility is how jumpy the price is. 50% annual means HYPE typically moves about ±50% over a year. We auto-fill from realized volatility of the recent period you selected. Override it if you think the future will be calmer or wilder than the past.

Backtest is one real sample — what actually happened to HYPE over the last N days. Simulator is 1,000 imagined samples under your assumptions. Use Backtest to sanity-check against history. Use Simulator to see the distribution of possible outcomes before committing capital.

It's a directional estimate, not a guarantee. Real LP fees depend on actual trade-by-trade volume, pool TVL over time, and block-level execution details we approximate. Treat the numbers as "roughly what should happen" for a given setup. Use it to compare strategies, not to predict PnL to the dollar.